Despite a record 19-day streak of inflows into US Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), some may wonder why the Bitcoin price has failed to rise above $73,679. Analysts say they have the answer.
As of June 6, bitcoin ETFs worldwide held approximately 1.3 million bitcoins, or 5.2% of the circulating bitcoin supply – with a significant amount held by U.S.-listed ETFs, according to HODL15Capital.
However, analysts say many other factors affect the price and ETFs do not have enough influence.
“ETF flows are strong, but not strong enough to outpace the sell-off of the entire ecosystem (yet),” Charles Edwards, founder of Capriol Investments, told Cointelegraph on June 6.
“You do realize that the market is made up of spot contracts, futures, ETFs and options, right? “The price at any given time is the product of all of these, not just one of them,” crypto trader Christopher Enckes wrote in a June 7 post.
“ETFs are important, but the price of Bitcoin is more influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events,” Radar Bear, co-founder of the cryptocurrency exchange, explained to Cointelegraph.
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According to data from Farside, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs on June 6 totaled $217.7 million.
Since their launch, Bitcoin ETFs have seen total inflows of over $15.5 billion – although some traders believe the amount is still too small to have a significant impact on prices until the open. other markets.
“There are still no Bitcoin ETFs in the UK or Japan, which are two major markets. “There’s a lot of room for growth,” Timothy Peterson, founder of Cane Island Alternative Advisors, told Cointelegraph.
Following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, Bitcoin rose nearly 53%, reaching an all-time high of $73,679 on March 13.
However, in the three months since, it has failed to rise further and is mostly trading within the range of its highs and the $60,000 support level.
Long-term shareholder movement is an important factor
Edwards noted that for another significant price rise to occur, one of three key factors would need to be confirmed:
“Increase in average ETF purchases, decline in long-term holder sales, and growth in U.S. or global liquidity,” he explained.
Edwards pointed to selling by long-term Bitcoin holders as an important factor, noting that those who have held Bitcoin for more than two years have sold frequently this year.
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This group’s share of Bitcoin’s total supply has declined slightly to 54% over the past six months, according to Edwards, which is having a much bigger impact on Bitcoin than it might seem.
“While 3% doesn’t seem like a lot, it equates to about 630,000 bitcoins, or about 3 times the total amount purchased by all US Bitcoin ETFs,” he explained.
He also noted that the effects of the Bitcoin halving have not yet begun:
“We probably haven’t seen the effects of the halving, with Bitcoin’s daily emissions falling by 50% in March. We will likely see a significant widening of the delta between ETF consumption and Bitcoin mining over the next 12 months.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.
