The price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose 3% on May 13 as cryptocurrency traders anticipated price volatility ahead of this week’s US macroeconomic data update.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed Bitcoin’s price rising intraday at $63,269 on Coinbase shortly after the Wall Street open on May 13.
This week, market participants are awaiting US inflation data to help determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2024.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected on Tuesday, May 14, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading on May 15.
According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch tool, market analysts expect a 72% chance of interest rates remaining unchanged at the July FOMC meeting, with interest rate cuts possible later in the year, at 48.6% at the September meeting. . Traders expect that there is a 91.1% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged at the June meeting.
Commenting on the market dynamics this week, renowned analyst TedTalksMacro said that “inflation data is taking center stage.”
“Expect volatility. However, this is the first time in a while that we are likely to see slow inflation data.
The analyst explained that lower inflation would be “good for risk assets like Bitcoin,” putting the market on the “brink of a rally.”
Fellow analyst Seth shared the following chart in a May 12 post on X, saying that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has broken above the downtrend line on the daily time frame.
The analyst acknowledged that “the CPI, core CPI, PPI, and the Fed Chairman’s speech” this week will likely influence Bitcoin’s price direction.
“Jerome Powell will probably pump our bags. The US economy is not as strong as the data indicates. The real unemployment rate published by the Ludwig Institute is 24.2% compared to the 3.8% reported by US.Dep.Labor!
Bitcoin price could rebound if Coinbase premiums turn negative
Bitcoin has seen an extended downtrend since breaking away from its all-time high of $73,835 on March 14. The price recorded a series of lower highs and lower lows with the RSI trending lower, reaching nearly oversold conditions at 33 on May 1.
According to CryptoQuant data, the Coinbase Premium Index reflects Bitcoin’s price movement, as it fell from $0.08 to nearly zero over the same period.
The Coinbase Premium indicator is an indicator that represents the percentage difference between the BTC/USDT pair on Binance and the BTC/USD pair on Coinbase Pro.
An analyst at CryptoQuant explains that the Coinbase Premium Index is an important “leading” indicator that can be used to predict the future of the BTC price.
Historically, if this indicator turns negative and reverses from bearish to bullish, BTC price always bounces, as shown in the chart below.
At press time, the Coinbase Premium index, while currently positive, was “close to zero,” the analyst added.
“If the historical pattern repeats itself, we may have a better chance of success if we wait a little longer and invest in the rebound after the trend turns negative.”
Crypto trader Mustache showed his optimism, considering that the current moves should lead to a more sustainable uptrend as in previous post-halving cycles.
In a May 13 post on
“It’s always been like this in the past. The structure is the same, only the price is different.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
