Bitcoin (BTC) begins a new week battling old resistance after starting June with surprising volatility.
Bitcoin price action depicts a tug-of-war between bulls and bears around 2021 all-time highs at $69,000 – who will win?
The increasingly unpredictable near-term market landscape has made watching – and trading – interesting so far in June. External catalysts, in the form of US macroeconomic data, have shown that they can reverse the trend in cryptocurrencies in an instant.
This, combined with the whales’ liquidity structuring moves, has so far managed to prevent Bitcoin from overcoming final resistance on its way to finding a price above $74,000.
While this has frustrated many market participants, the coming days should provide more such catalysts.
The United States will release important inflation data throughout the week, while the Federal Reserve will hold its final meeting to discuss interest rate changes.
Meanwhile, a glimmer of hope comes from the fact that Bitcoin is gradually strengthening various support/resistance fluctuations over longer time frames – which has not gone unnoticed.
With so much at stake for the current trading range, Cointelegraph takes a closer look at these key conversation topics regarding BTC’s future price action.
BTC price: limited range but subject to change
In contrast, Bitcoin had a quiet weekend after the sudden volatility caused by the macroeconomy during the final trading session on Wall Street last week.
The $69,000 mark, site of Bitcoin’s former all-time highs from 2021, has been the center of market attention, and this continues in the new Asian session, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Without an upward or downward breakout, liquidity begins to accumulate around the spot price in a classic pattern, as CoinGlass provider monitoring follows, which could lead to a continuation and thus greater volatility in the future.
“There is no significant change in spot order books. Ask for a liquidity increase of approximately $70.5k to $71k. Auction liquidity increased around the low of $68.5k to $68k,” concluded popular trader Skew in his latest analysis on X (formerly Twitter).
“Market reaction on both sides of the book will be important early in the week for a reversal or continued trading.”
Another trader, Daan Crypto Trades, pointed out that the closing price of CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market is guiding the price into the new week, saying the price action was “business as usual” across the board.
“I guess it loses its edge once you get past that range, but even then it’s a good tool to keep from getting cut up on the weekends,” he told X subscribers .
Meanwhile, Michael van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, described the BTC/USD pair as “a merger between the two crucial levels.”
“It would be huge to go above $71.7k, but it’s usual to be conservative for a CPI week,” he concluded.
CPI Meets Fed Meeting in Key Macro Week for Crypto
The macroeconomic landscape is dominated by two major events this week: the Fed’s interest rate decision and accompanying press conference, as well as the May edition of the Consumer Price Index ( CPI).
In what appears to be a double whammy for risk asset volatility, the Consumer Price Index is set to be released on the same day as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
“The long-awaited June Fed meeting is officially happening, with all eyes on the Fed’s guidance,” business source The Kobeissi Letter wrote next week in X.
The data may be particularly relevant to cryptocurrency traders. Last week, US jobs data immediately caused a stir as it far exceeded expectations, briefly sending the price of Bitcoin against the dollar down by almost 2%.
Commenting on how Bitcoin will react to incoming data, popular trader CrypNuevo highlighted two possible scenarios.
“Scenario 1: resumption of the NFP movement at the start of the week, consolidation until the exit of the FOMC, strong movement of the FOMC then correction of the movement of the FOMC. Scenario 2: The FOMC recovers the NFP movement. “In the meantime, we are simply consolidating and sweeping the lowest,” X’s post read.
CrypNuevo highlighted the nonfarm payrolls, or NFP, report that sparked the crypto wave last week.
Market expectations for Fed policy changes haven’t changed in a long time: They think the FOMC won’t cut interest rates this month, and it may take several more meetings before that the Fed does not follow central banks elsewhere in lowering them, according to Data from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Meanwhile, June 13 is the other major macro data day, as the US releases its producer price index, as well as weekly jobless claims.
“But let’s not forget that when economic data shakes the market, these movements tend to reverse later. “And we have the same situation with the NFP move two days ago,” CrypNuevo wrote in another article.
“Will we follow the NFP movement before the FOMC?
BTC Weekly Close Nears All-Time High
BTC/USD’s weekly close was significant as part of the broader consolidation structure in place since its March all-time high at $73,800.
As noted by many commentators, including famous trader and analyst Matthew Hyland, at $69,630, the latest close was the second highest ever for Bitcoin.
This comes despite a last-minute drop over the weekend, some of which buyers later managed to reverse.
Data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin ultimately rose 2.7% last week, with the monthly open remaining intact as support.
In its weekend analysis, Daan Crypto Trades said a weekly close above 2021 highs at $69,000 “would be a good start to abandoning this price range.”
He pointed out: “We’ve done it before, but it was in the context of a massive tour that needed to calm down. »
“It can be said that this time BTC will have a lot of fuel.”
Meanwhile, a commentator known as Nunya Bizniz on X questioned whether BTC/USD’s 23% rebound from March highs was enough compared to previous sessions.
Bitcoin Resistance Reversal Is a “Historic Technical Achievement”
For popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, there is reason to be optimistic about BTC’s price action despite the current range-limited setup.
Analyzing the monthly timeframes, it revealed a clear resistance/support fluctuation, which is a major victory for the ongoing bull market.
“Bitcoin achieved a historic technical breakthrough by transforming a key area of former resistance into key new support,” he summarized this weekend.
“Bitcoin has since developed a reaccumulation range at these highs that resembles a bull flag trend continuation pattern.”
The attached chart shows that the relevant resistance zone lies between $58,600 and $61,300, which will defeat the bulls in 2021. Now, monthly time frames show that the tide has turned in their favor.
“Bitcoin continues to consolidate in a reaccumulation range after the halving,” he continued alongside a chart comparing Bitcoin’s past and present bull markets.
“The high resistance range is around $71,500. The lower support range is $60,600.
Earlier, Rekt Capital noted that the current sideways BTC price movement may need more time to resolve, but the overall uptrend has remained firmly intact.
He reiterated: “At the moment, Bitcoin is not yet ready to cross the parabolic phase of the cycle. »
Whales seek “medium-term profits”
“Reaccumulation” describes not only the price action of Bitcoin this month, but also the habits of Bitcoin whales.
Related: BNB, TON, FIL, and INJ Prices Could Rise Significantly if Bitcoin Price Drops Below $69,000
In an article for on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant on June 5, contributor Cauê Oliveira argued that large BTC investors are currently loading the coins for “medium-term profits.”
“Unlike committed Bitcoin investors, who seek to build long-term reserves, whales generally seek medium-term profits,” he writes.
“We can easily identify this behavior from the monthly change in Bitcoin reserves for entities holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins.”
The attached chart shows the monthly percentage change in whale stocks on a 30-day rolling basis. This figure is currently up slightly after the strong distribution phase that followed Bitcoin’s rise to historic highs in mid-March.
“It should be noted that there is an accumulation and distribution model that directly affects prices,” Oliveira continued.
“After an intense distribution period in March, institutional investors began a reaccumulation process over the past two weeks.”
Oliveira added that whale behavior has already started to be felt in the market, but is “expected to intensify in the coming weeks.”
Meanwhile, last week, Cointelegraph reported on the phenomenon of long-dormant Bitcoin returning to circulation in what cryptocurrency analyst JA Martone also described at the time as a distribution.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.
