According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, the seasonality of stock markets indicates…

According to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, the seasonality of the stock market and cryptocurrencies, coupled with Bitcoin blockchain data, suggests that the BTC price could consolidate for 4-5 months.

In a new report, Edwards said Bitcoin continues to fluctuate in cycle highs in the $58,000-$65,000 region, with a sustained weekly close above $58,000 “supporting the continuation of the trend to long term “.

Comparing Bitcoin’s price action to gold, which has formed a “huge cup and handle” pattern over the past 13 years, with the “cut” lasting four years, Edwards highlighted how Bitcoin seems show the same graphic pattern.

Edwards noted that given the similarities between Bitcoin and gold, it is possible that Bitcoin could spend “up to nine months in the upper range to form a cup before a measured upward move.”

Edwards said:

“The technical situation remains bullish, provided the price remains above $58,000. “The more time we spend in the high range, the more likely this structure is to coalesce into the classic ‘cup and handle’ pattern, which typically sees a sharp rise in price thereafter.

BTC/USD weekly chart. source: Trading View

Despite the promise of a cup-and-handle pattern, Edwards noted that Bitcoin’s supply deltas and the currency’s 90-day destruction (CDD) metrics have formed rounded highs. Edwards explained that Capriole Investments uses both to identify cycle highs and that “we are at a similar mid-cycle stopping point.”

“Either way, this chart tells us to expect at least a few months (and perhaps up to 6 months) of sideways swings and volatility before the trend resumes. “We reached the two-month mark today.”

90-day supply delta in Bitcoin and CDD. Source: Capriol Investments

Edwards also said he is closely monitoring the Capriol Bitcoin Macro Index, an index that compiles more than 50 of Bitcoin’s strongest on-chain and macro-market metrics that reveal Bitcoin is “still far from risky.” .

Bitcoin macro indicator. Source: Capriole Investments

Risk aversion describes market sentiment in which investors reduce their exposure to risk and focus on protecting their capital.

However, the report notes that “most other indicators still indicate that this cycle has significant room to run.”

about: Bitcoin Analysis Sees $74,000 Next As BTC Price Attempts to Hold 7.5% Gains

Investment management firm ARK Invest supported Edward’s view, acknowledging that Bitcoin remains bullish. ARK Invest analysts have shown that previous halving events have paved the way for long-term momentum for BTC.

The report notes that each halving serves as a “prelude to upward momentum over a longer-term time horizon,” adding:

“Assuming the price of Bitcoin increased 3x after a year of halving, this time around might be too optimistic. However, this chart highlights the increasing scarcity of Bitcoin over a broad time horizon.

BTC performance since the halving day. Source: Arche Invest

If the halving cycle plays out as expected, Bitcoin price could enter a parabolic uptrend, breaking through the price range between $180,000 and $200,000 if it achieves a 3x increase in Bitcoin price.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.

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