Cryptocurrency community eagerly awaits launch of spot ETFs

The cryptocurrency community is eagerly awaiting the launch of Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States, and some analysts believe they could attract huge inflows of capital into the market.

Matt Hogan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, is optimistic about the potential of these investment products and expects significant inflows into Ethereum spot ETFs in the first few months of trading.

“Ethereum exchange-traded products will attract $15 billion in net inflows in their first 18 months on the market,” Hogan said in his analysis published on June 26.

Hogan’s $15 billion forecast is based on a comprehensive analysis of available data, including a comparison of the market capitalization of Ethereum (ETH) with that of Bitcoin (BTC), the international cryptocurrency market, Ethereum transfer Trust (ETHE) from Grayscale and ETFs in… .Instant Bitcoin. “Carry trade. »

The analyst expects investors to invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs roughly in proportion to their market capitalization.

“Absent further information, I expect investors to allocate to BTC and ETH ETPs roughly in line with their market caps: BTC: $1.266 billion (74% of the market) and ETH: $432 billion (26% of the market).

Note that Hougan arrives at the percentages by adding the market capitalization of the top two cryptocurrencies only.

BTC vs ETH market capitalization. source: Trading View

“US investors have invested $56 billion in spot Bitcoin ETFs,” Hogan explained, adding that he expects that figure to reach $100 billion by the end of 2025 “as these ETFs are maturing and adopting platforms like Morgan Stanley.”

Using $100 billion as a benchmark and subtracting Grayscale’s $10 billion conversion of an Ethereum Trust to ETF, Ethereum spot ETFs could see a net inflow of $25 billion.

To validate this figure, he analyzed international ETF markets and found that Canada and Europe have a similar distribution of investments between the two assets, with Bitcoin ETFs accounting for around 78% and Ethereum ETFs accounting for around 22% of the total assets under management (AUM). ). ).

“The fact that the asset allocation is almost identical in the two geographies suggests that this distribution largely reflects the relative demand for BTC and ETH among ETP investors.”

Given that international Ethereum ETFs only have a combined market share of around 22% compared to Bitcoin, this reduces the estimate from $25 billion to $18 billion.

Finally, Hogan considers the potential impact of carry trading, expressing reservations that institutions will not engage in carry trading on Ethereum as they do with Bitcoin ETFs due to the lack of of participation in American Ethereum ETFs.

A carry trade involves buying an asset on the spot market and selling its equivalent on the futures market. The goal is to profit from the price difference when an asset’s futures contract trades at a premium to its spot price.

To maintain a conservative estimate, Hogan removed $10 billion in carry trade-related assets under management when sizing the Bitcoin market, resulting in a revised estimate of $15 billion in net inflows to traded products. Ethereum exchange by the end of 2025.

“I think ETH exchange-traded products will be hugely successful. “At least that’s what the data tells me.”

Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETF issuers continue to finalize their pre-launch registrations following its approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on May 23.

Companies file amended registration statements on Form S-1 as part of the process. Spot ETFs could begin trading in the U.S. by July 2, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

source: Eric Balchunas

On June 25, investment manager VanEck filed a Form 8-A with the SEC for its cash ETF, bringing it closer to launch.

Ether price finds support around $3,300

Data from IntoTheBlock shows that ETH is finding support around the $3,300 demand zone. The In/Out of the Money Price (IOMAP) model, which displays information about addresses that purchased an asset within a certain price range, shows that this level is within the price range of $3,257 to $3,557 , where about 1.4 million Ethereum used to be. purchased from approximately 2.73 million addresses.

Ethereum IOMAP chart. Source: In the block

Looking at the ETH/USD weekly chart, one will notice that the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) is currently located here, making it a strong line of defense for the bulls.

Technically, the RSI remained in positive territory above the midline, and the price strength at 55 indicates that market conditions are still favorable for an uptrend.

ETH/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

In the short term, traders appear to be setting price targets for Ether between $3,500 and $3,973.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.

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