Bitcoin (BTC) could reach a cycle high of $130,000 to $150,000 between late August and early September if it follows the path of previous post-halving bull markets, according to cryptocurrency trader Peter Brandt.
The recently passed Bitcoin halving on April 20 is a crypto event roughly every four years that reduces mining rewards by 50%, and the halving dates have represented “near perfect symmetry to past bull cycles of the market,” Brandt wrote in a June 2 report.
It has been historically claimed that the Bitcoin halving date is roughly in the middle of when the bull market begins and reaches its peak.
The last Bitcoin bull market began about 16 months before the May 11, 2020 halving, and the cycle ended about 18 months later, according to Brandt’s analysis.
The previous two halves – July 9, 2016 and November 28, 2012 – followed a similar pattern, Brandt noted.
“If this streak continues, the peak of the next market upcycle is expected to occur in late August/early September 2025,” he wrote.
Brandt added that “there is no foolproof method of analysis” when it comes to guessing a Bitcoin cycle top, but previous rallies have followed a similar growth pattern, and if they continue , he places a bull rally “in the range of $130,000 to $150,000.” »
The Bitcoin opportunity has already taken the lead
Brandt’s analysis indicates that December 17, 2022 will mark the start of the current bull market. Bitcoin was trading at around $16,800 at the time, but has since risen more than 300% to trade at $67,882, according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro.
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Bitcoin fell from its March 14 all-time high of $73,679, however, Brandt estimates that there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already reached the top of a bull market, as the gains from each bull cycle diminish compared to the previous one.
If Bitcoin fails to reach a new all-time high and falls below $55,000, Brandt says it will increase the likelihood that the cryptocurrency will experience a “massive decline.”
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