Mt.Gox’s planned repayment of $8.5 billion worth of bitcoin (BTC) to creditors next month may not cause as much chaos on the bitcoin price as many think, analysts say.
IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore told Cointelegraph that there are simply too many historical factors to meaningfully predict the impact of upcoming payments, but he estimates that about half of the total Bitcoin – around $4.5 billion – could hit the market starting in July.
Mt.Gox was a Japanese cryptocurrency exchange that collapsed after being hacked in February 2014. The exchange lost around 940,000 BTC, which was only worth $64 million at the time.
Mt Gox recovered 141,687 BTC to return to its creditors, worth $8.5 billion at the time of publication. This amount will begin to be paid to creditors in early July.
Despite the potential influx of Bitcoin into the market, Sycamore said he believes much of the so-called selling pressure for Mt.Gox has already been priced into current market conditions.
“Reimbursement is a long time coming,” he said.
“The payouts are taking place against a backdrop of deteriorating market sentiment, technical selling and outflows from Bitcoin ETFs,” Sycamore said, adding that much of the “hot money” in crypto speculation- currencies has gone hunting for “greener pastures” in cryptocurrencies. Huge. Stocks like Nvidia and Apple on the stock market.
Speaking about Bitcoin price action more generally, Sycamore said he is not convinced the current sell-off could deepen. He pointed to the strong support of the 200-day moving average as reason for optimism in the coming weeks.
“I think we just had an influx. “The reason for this influx is all these impacts culminating in the sales expectations of Mt. said Jukes, adding:
“I think it’s probably a really good entry point for people who are maintaining better buying levels.”
In a message dated June 25 to
about: 4-week correction for Bitcoin? Mount Jukes and German government add selling pressure
Thorne predicted that around 75% of creditors would have opted for “early” compensation, sacrificing 10% of their repayment, resulting in around 95,000 bitcoins initially hitting the market.
Additionally, he added that 20,000 BTC was owed under the claims and almost 10,000 BTC was owed to Bitcoinica BK – leaving only 65,000 BTC for regular creditors.
Mt.Gox creditors likely to resort to HODL
Additionally, Thorne explained that there are several reasons to believe that Mt. Gox’s individual creditors will be “in possession of more diamonds” than the market predicts.
He noted that most creditors tended to be “long-term bitcoin holders” and were likely to hold on to their bitcoins, and pointed out that many individual creditors had resisted years of “compelling and aggressive offers” of claims offering payments in US dollars, indicating that They wanted their Bitcoin back, not fiat currencies.
He also highlighted the impact of capital gains tax on sellers, saying that although original creditors only get a 15% recovery in kind, many claimants have made gains 140 times higher since the bankruptcy proceedings recovered their bitcoin.
Thorne said the potential selling pressure on Bitcoin Cash (BCH) would likely be “much worse” given that many investors never purchased BCH directly, only receiving it due to the Bitcoin hard fork that occurred in 2017.
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